This dashboard presents a personal investment thesis based on publicly available SEC filings, market data, and pattern recognition. All references to "Fund1," "Pleasant Lake Partners," or TRS (Total Return Swap) strategies are speculative hypotheses, NOT accusations of wrongdoing. The author has no inside knowledge of Fund1's actual trading strategies. Fund1's activities, if any TRS exists, are entirely legal under SEC regulations. This analysis is for educational and personal tracking purposes only. The author holds FLWS shares and is financially biased.
FLWS
1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc.
TRS Theory
Fund1/Pleasant Lake is using Total Return Swaps to secretly accumulate economic exposure to FLWS while appearing to have sold shares.
- + Fund1 uses TRS on CURV - SEC Form 3 (July 2025)
- + Fund1 uses TRS on TTSH - exercised Dec 12, 2025
- + TTSH went private 3 days after TRS exercise
- + Oct 22 "sale" had 8.28σ FINRA Exempt spike
- + Borrow wash pattern matches TRS hedge mechanics
- + 🆕 Nelson Tejada (PE turnaround) joins board Dec 15
- + 🆕 Rincon PR network: Fund1/Pleasant Lake same address
- - Oct 22 sale could be profit-taking (6-month hold complete)
- - Fund1 may use TRS on other stocks but not FLWS
- - Borrow wash could be prime broker inventory mgmt
Borrow Wash Decay
The daily "3M share wash" pattern is decaying toward zero, indicating shrinking available float.
- + Ceiling decaying at ~4,800 shares/day
- + Dec 19: Wash failed - peaked at 1.2M vs 2.9M
- + Borrow fee flipped negative (-0.31% to -0.42%)
- + 🆕 Nov 6-7: Peak negative rebate -1.49% (154 readings)
- + Pattern consistent with TRS hedge bank holding shares
- - Chartexchange aggregates brokers but may miss OTC/dark pool
- - Year-end institutional rebalancing could explain decay
- - New shorts may use alternative locate sources
Fundamental Floor
FLWS has a quantifiable floor of ~$2.80 based on probability-weighted liquidation scenarios.
- + Trading at 0.17x revenue ($287M cap / $1.65B rev)
- + Net cash positive (+$87M at seasonal peak)
- + $25M voluntary debt prepayment in Q2 FY25
- + $10.2M share buyback program in FY25
- + New leadership from Home Depot (CEO, CMO, CIO)
- - Revenue declining (FY24 $1.83B → FY25 ~$1.65B)
- - EBITDA declining (FY24 $93M → FY25 $65-75M)
- - Turnaround execution not guaranteed
McCann Alignment
The McCann family (51% ownership, 88% voting via Class B) is aligned with a potential buyout rather than fighting it.
- + May 2025: First non-family CEO hired (Villagomez)
- + Dec 2025: New CIO from Home Depot (Zelikovsky)
- + 🆕 Dec 2025: PE turnaround expert Nelson Tejada joins board
- + Family has been net buyers per SEC filings
- + Class B auto-converts if transferred (structural lock)
- + 49-year legacy suggests graceful exit preference
- - No public statement about going-private
- - Could be genuine succession, not exit prep
- - No indication of active buyer search